November 04, 2014
Guest post by Michael Weintraub, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Binghamton University.
An article in the Economist, “The Dogs Bark in Colombia,” details the intransigence of both Álvaro Uribe (a former president and the leader of right-wing opposition to the peace talks) and the FARC’s leaders, which has the potential to derail negotiations. Coupled with the slow pace of talks, evidence that elements of the Colombian military have been spying on human rights defenders, journalists, and politicians involved in the peace process, and continued armed confrontations between insurgents and the government, there remain formidable challenges to reaching a peace agreement that would end the conflict. There are, however, some positive developments to report.
First, groups of victims continue to be heard in Havana. These interactions, whether directly or indirectly, have led to the recent recognition by the FARC that they have created victims in the conflict. As noted on the opinion pool website, this is a watershed event and should give us increased confidence that an agreement will eventually be signed. Why would the FARC admit to such crimes unless there were some benefit that would accrue to its leaders and members at the end?
Second, the negotiations proceed apace. Indeed, because of the slow pace (and domestic political pressure for demonstrated “wins”) two items on the agenda are being negotiated simultaneously. This probably increases the likelihood that an agreement will be reached more quickly, although if the past is any prelude, that still means many months of talks.
Third, the recently-created “historical clarification commission” is working to provide an independent assessment of the origins and dynamics of the conflict, which will feed into the talks. The commission is composed primarily of academics and could either have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on the talks, depending upon what is found and reported. It is unlikely that anything particularly damning to either side will be revealed, given that this is well-trod territory.
Fourth, representation from some of the most violent sub-units within the FARC have made appearances in Havana. This may increase the likelihood that an agreement will be reached (although more veto players engaged in the talks challenges that notion) and, if it does, that the FARC will be able to avoid fragmentation in a post-conflict environment.
In short, while there are positive signs, cautious optimism should remain. The chances that an agreement will be concluded before January 1, 2015 - which is the deadline for the question in our opinion pool - are, frankly, quite low. These negotiations will take time, and there are simply too many moving parts to think that they can be wrapped up before the year’s end.
Ed.: Since late 2013, the Early Warning Project has been running a question on its opinion pool about the prospects for a peace deal before 2015. This post originally appeared as a comment on that question inside the opinion pool. A plot of the crowd's aggregate forecast over the question's run to date is shown below. You can see Michael's previous Early Warning Project blog post on this topic here.
